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By Linda Green
United Methodist News Service

The United Methodist presence in the United States today is the same as it was in 1820. And, if trends in aging and membership losses continue at their current rates, the church will shrink to its size at the time of the first Christmas Conference in 1784.

The analysis came from the Rev. Lovett Weems speaking Nov. 6 to the denomination's Council of Bishops after examining the State of the Church report released churchwide in June.
The report provides a baseline of the thoughts, feelings, values and judgments of a cross-section of United Methodist leaders and members, said Ohio East Bishop John Hopkins, president of the Connectional Table, the leadership entity that coordinates the mission, ministries and resources for the denomination.

The questions the report raises 'lead us to wonder if we can have a future worthy of our past,' said Weems, a professor of church leadership and director of the Lewis Center for Church Leadership of Wesley Theological Seminary, in Washington, D.C. 'Without a new vision, the future does not look bright,' he added. However, he also told the bishops that new visions often emerge in times of hardship.

United Methodist leaders have been struggling for decades to understand the gradual decline of the denomination's reach in the United States, where membership is almost 8 million, a decline of 19 percent since 1974. Forty-one percent of United Methodist churches in the United States did not report a single profession of faith in 2005.

The church grew up in America in the 19th century and early decades of the 20th century, but 'as the last century unfolded, the nation changed and the church did not.'
Today, the U.S. church is smaller and older and less diverse than the country's population, he said.

Weems said the issue of race and ethnicity is not as prominent in the State of the Church report as would be expected given that the United States is undergoing one of the most dramatic racial and ethnic shifts in its history.

He said all mainline churches have statements about inclusiveness, but 'there is not a single mainline denomination in the United States that has shown that it can reach any group of people other than white people as well as it can reach white people.'

'The need for a renewed spirit of inclusion of people is crucial today,' he said. The church's future will be shaped by 'its willingness and ability to respond to the changing face of America.'

Weems called the lack of young United Methodist clergy both a crisis and a 'complex, multi-dimensional phenomenon' and asked if they should be declared an endangered species. Over the last 20 years, the denomination's U.S. clergy under the age of 35 has dropped below 5 percent.

'There is no single cause and no single solution,' he said.

The church must recruit young clergy to bring new ideas, creativity, energy and cultural awareness, said Weems. He added that, without them, these characteristic are lost, jeopardizing the wisdom and experience that can come with long ministry tenures.

Weems told the bishops that large churches have attracted young people and diverse congregations for at least 30 years.

Only 1 percent of the 34,892 United Methodist churches have a worship attendance of more than 500 people, and those larger congregations represent 20 percent of membership, 20 percent of attendance, 24 percent of profession of faith, 25 percent of youth, 26 percent of children and 29 percent of people of color.

The numbers, he said, 'cry out for attention to what we all can learn from these congregations.'

The good news is that the report indicates that United Methodists are immersed in experiences leading to theological grounding and spiritual vitality.

'United Methodist core beliefs are clear,' and there is 'remarkable' consensus on key tenets of the Christian faith, Weems said, with variations of emphasis in the United States and across the globe.

Weems described the church as evangelical in a liberal tradition. The church, he said, is the first to challenge assumptions and to open windows and doors to new ideas and possibilities when faith demands it.

'Could such a vision that is both deep (in faith and piety) and open (to new needs and possibilities) sustain us over the years ahead?' he asked.

The report is based on surveys conducted between June and September of 2006, and involved interviewing a cross-section of about 3,000 United Methodist clergy, lay leaders and members from across the globe. Connectional Table leaders said the project was the first time the church has attempted to produce a comprehensive overview of the life of the church and was designed to stimulate churchwide conversation.