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Will The United Methodist Church have enough pastors to supply all its pastoral charges in the years ahead?

The total number of pastoral charges increased from 24,744 in 1975, to 26,247 in 2004, the latest year for which statistics are available. Currently there are 20,154 ordained and probationary Elders serving local churches, a reduction of almost 1,000 such Elders serving these charges over the last five years. This is due to increased retirements and fewer probationers.

The decrease in number of ordained pastors has been made up for by an increased reliance upon local pastors (non-ordained). The number of local pastors serving on a full-time basis has seen a steady increase since 1975. The number serving in 1975, 1,220, more than doubled to 2,576 in 2004. Those serving on a part-time basis have also increased in number over this period from 2,706 to 3,976. Thus, the total number of local pastors serving both full-time and part-time has risen from 3,926 in 1975, to 6,552 in 2004, for a net increase of 2,626 local pastors.

In 2004, 25 percent of all pastoral appointments to local charges were served by local pastors. Through the 1980s and the 1990s this figure was 18 percent.

Over the years, the Southeastern Jurisdiction has experienced almost twice as many local pastor appointments as any of the other Jurisdictions. Its numbers have increased from 1,520 in 1975, to 2,517 in 2004. The Baltimore-Washington Conference uses local pastors to lead only 11 percent of its churches ? one of the lowest percentages of the denominations 65 annual conferences.

Enrollment in Master of Divinity (M.Div.) programs in United Methodist seminaries has remained rather consistent over this period: 2,762 in 1975, and 2,728 in 2003. In 2004, however, there has been an increase of 154 students to 2,882. The latest figures from the Association of Theological School's, Fact Book, shows that in 2002, there were 3,835 United Methodists in 114 M.Div. programs across the U.S.

However, the number of seminary students and graduates who have moved into probationary conference membership has seen a decline from 1970 through 2001: 924 became probationers in 1970, 884 in 1975, and a consistent decline with 490 in 2001. In 2002 there was a slight increase to 539, with 639 in 2003, and again a drop to 498 in 2004.

A study done for the Association of Theological Schools in 1995, indicates that 72 percent of the M.Div. graduates go on to serve in parish ministry. Most of the remaining 28 percent enter some form of specialized ministry.

The average age of seminarians increased from 25.4 years in 1962, to 34.7 in 1991. That higher average age remained fairly constant throughout the 90s, but since 2000, there appears to be a slight increase in the number of students in their late 20s.

Of the 2,882 M.Div. students enrolled in United Methodist seminaries 48.9 percent are male, and 51.1 percent are female. Methesco has the highest proportion of males, with 74.3 percent, and all the rest range in the 40 and 50 percentile ratio.

A study done for the Association of Theological Schools in 1995, indicates that 60 percent of the women go on to serve in parish ministries, and 76 percent of the men go on to such service. Most of the remaining 28 percent enter some form of specialized ministry.

In the year 2004, a total of 28 Hispanic/Latino students were enrolled in United Methodist M.Div. programs, out of 2,882 students. This represents one percent in our United Methodist seminaries.

In 2003, the Latino population became the largest minority group in the U.S. This group of people now constitute over 35 million in number, which is expected to increase 35 percent in this decade, according to the U.S. Census Bureau. Almost 12 million live in California, over seven million live in Texas, and three million live in Florida and in New York. Arizona, Illinois, and New Jersey all have over one million Latinos now as part of their total population.

M.Div. enrollment in the fall of 2004, was 68.5 percent 'white,' 19.2 percent 'black,' 2.5 percent 'Asian,' 0.5 percent 'Native American,' 5.0 percent studying under a Visa arrangement (i.e., a 'foreign student') and 2.5 percent whose 'ethnicity' is unknown.

Non?white representation in the M.Div. programs of our United Methodist seminaries by percentage is as follows: Gammon? 96.2, Drew? 61.6%, Wesley? 44.8, Claremont? 38.5, Methesco? 36.4, Boston? 35.2, Garret?Evangelical? 31.5, Candler? 27.0, Perkins? 25.5, United? 23.0, Saint Paul? 17.1, Duke? 16.7, and Iliff? 11.4.

Many issues are raised by this report, none of which can be addressed in depth here. The decrease in Elders and increase in local pastors seems to match the trend in increased numbers of charges. The charge increase is a result of several factors including declining church memberships accompanied by increased costs (especially health care) of sustaining a full time pastor. These lead to more churches dropping to part?time.

On another front the percentage of non?white seminary students is much greater than the percentage of non?white churches and members, raising interesting appointment possibilities. At the same time the number of Hispanic seminary students is seriously lagging the need to start more Hispanic ministries to meet the needs of the large and fast growing Hispanic population.

Of great importance, though not addressed by this study, is whether the changes in clergy profiles include the sort of leaders who can start new churches and bring new vitality to existing churches.

The Rev. Ellis Larson retired from Wesley Theological Seminary in 2001, where his last appointment was Church Administration/Assistant Dean. He lives in Rockville.